Steven Kim
The outlook for the next few decades is pallid at best for the real and financial markets of Europe due to the litany of self-inflicted wounds and counterproductive schemes dished out by the political class. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy will continue to chug along despite the plethora of insults and injuries served up by the policymakers. An example in this vein is the crippling of the markets by way of contrived schemes to prop up the housing sector; a direct byproduct is to congeal the distortions in the chains of production and distribution that arose in the throes of the housing bubble. On the bright side, the vanguards of the business world garner a swelling share of their profits from foreign markets. In this way the dynamos partake of the growth of the global economy, the bulk of which springs from the emerging regions. The upshot is a bonanza for the U.S. bourse despite the inevitable splutter of sideswipes and upsets to pop up from time to time. From a different angle, the long wave of the commodity cycle embarked on its latest tour upon the blowup of the stock market in 2000. This type of mega circuit lasts 34 years on average. Moreover, if history is any indication, the commodity sector entered its downcast phase around 2017. The corresponding motif in the financial theater is a groundswell of the stock market over the same timespan. In other words, the U.S. bourse should flourish until the middle of the 2030s or thereabouts. Meanwhile the emerging markets that deliver the bulk of global growth ought to reap the biggest gains in the financial forum as well as the real economy. In the absence of a cataclysmic blow such as a worldwide war or a cosmic shock that shatters the planet, the prospects for the future are brighter at this stage than they have ever been since the dawn of the 21st century.
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