World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Towards an Integrated Forecasting System for Fisheries on Habitat-bound Stocks : Volume 9, Issue 2 (07/03/2013)

By Christensen, A.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004020643
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 19
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Towards an Integrated Forecasting System for Fisheries on Habitat-bound Stocks : Volume 9, Issue 2 (07/03/2013)  
Author: Christensen, A.
Volume: Vol. 9, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Ocean, Science
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Allen, I. J., Butenschön, M., Christensen, A., & Gürkan, Z. (2013). Towards an Integrated Forecasting System for Fisheries on Habitat-bound Stocks : Volume 9, Issue 2 (07/03/2013). Retrieved from

Description: DTU Aqua, Technical University of Denmark, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. First results of a coupled modelling and forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks are being presented. The system consists currently of three mathematically, fundamentally different model subsystems coupled offline: POLCOMS providing the physical environment implemented in the domain of the north-west European shelf, the SPAM model which describes sandeel stocks in the North Sea, and the third component, the SLAM model, which connects POLCOMS and SPAM by computing the physical–biological interaction. Our major experience by the coupling model subsystems is that well-defined and generic model interfaces are very important for a successful and extendable coupled model framework. The integrated approach, simulating ecosystem dynamics from physics to fish, allows for analysis of the pathways in the ecosystem to investigate the propagation of changes in the ocean climate and to quantify the impacts on the higher trophic level, in this case the sandeel population, demonstrated here on the basis of hindcast data. The coupled forecasting system is tested for some typical scientific questions appearing in spatial fish stock management and marine spatial planning, including determination of local and basin-scale maximum sustainable yield, stock connectivity and source/sink structure. Our presented simulations indicate that sandeel stocks are currently exploited close to the maximum sustainable yield, even though periodic overfishing seems to have occurred, but large uncertainty is associated with determining stock maximum sustainable yield due to stock inherent dynamics and climatic variability. Our statistical ensemble simulations indicates that the predictive horizon set by climate interannual variability is 2–6 yr, after which only an asymptotic probability distribution of stock properties, like biomass, are predictable.

Towards an integrated forecasting system for fisheries on habitat-bound stocks

Alheit, J.: Consequences of regime shifts for marine food webs, Int. J. Earth. Sci., 98, 261–268, doi:10.1007/s00531-007-0232-9, 2009.; Arnott, S. A. and Ruxton, G. D.: Sandeel recruitment in the North Sea: demographic, climatic and trophic effects, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 238, 199–210, 2002.; Allen, J. I., Blackford, J. C., Holt, J., Proctor, R., Ashworth, M., and Siddorn, J.: A highly spatially resolved ecosystem model for the North West European Continental Shelf, Sarsia, 86, 423–440, 2001.; Allen, J. I., Holt, J. T., Blackford, J., and Proctor, R.: Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2, J. Marine Syst., 68, 381–404, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.01.005, 2007.; Barker, D. M., Huang, W., Guo, Y. R., Bourgeois, A. J., and Xiao, Q. N.: A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for MM5: Implementation and initial results, Mon. Weath. Rev., 132, 897–914, 2004.; Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, 1987.; Beaugrand, G., Reid, P., Ibanez, F., Lindley, J., and Edwards, M.: Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate, Science, 296, 1692–1694, doi:10.1126/science.1071329, 2002.; Beaugrand, G., Brander, K., Lindley, J., Souissi, S., and Reid, P.: Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea, Nature, 426, 661–664, doi:10.1038/nature02164, 2003.; Beyer, J., Pedersen, E. M., Wieland, K., Andersen, N. G., Andersen, B. S., Hansen, J. H., Hussy, K., Kristensen, K., Madsen, N., Mariani, P., and Stage, B.: Optimization of fisheries resource exploitation in the Skagerrak (Oskar), DTU Aqua report, 239, 2012.; Boulcott, P., Wright, P. J., Gibb, F. M., Jensen, H., and Gibb, I. M.: Regional variation in maturation of sandeels in the North Sea, Ices J. Mar. Sci., 64, 369–376, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsl033, 2007.; Brasseur, P., Gruber, N., Barciela, R., Brander, K., Doron, M., El Moussaoui, A., Hobday, A. J., Huret, M., Kremeur, A.-S., Lehodey, P., Matear, R., Moulin, C., Murtugudde, R., Senina, I., and Svendsen, E.: Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems, Oceanogr., 22, 192–201, 2009.; Butenschön, M., Holt, J., Artioli, Y., Wakelin, S., Saux Picart, S., de Mora, L., Blackford, J., and Allen, J.: Dominant Temporal and Spatial Features of the Intra-annual Phytoplankton Dynamics on the North-West European Shelf: A modelling study, Ocean Sci. Discuss., in preparation, 2013.; Carpenter, S.: Ecological futures: Building an ecology of the long now, Ecology, 83, 2069–2083, doi:10.2307/3072038, 2002.; Chen, D. and Ware, D.: A neural network model for forecasting fish stock recruitment, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 56, 2385–2396, doi:10.1139/cjfas-56-12-2385, 1999.; Christensen, A., Daewel, U., Jensen, H., Mosegaard, H., St. John, M., and Schrum, C.: Hydrodynamic backtracking of fish larvae by individual-based modelling, Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser., 347, 221–232, 2007.; Christensen, A., Jensen, H., Mosegaard, M., M., S. J., and Schrum, C.: Sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) larval transport patterns in North Sea from an individual-based hydrodynamic egg and larval model, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 65, 1498–1511, doi:10.1139/F08-073, 2008.; Christe


Click To View

Additional Books

  • Spatiotemporal Variations of FCo2 in the... (by )
  • The Instability of Diffusive Convection ... (by )
  • Stochastic Heterogeneity Mapping Around ... (by )
  • Influence of Winds on Temporally Varying... (by )
  • Modeling the Effects of Size on Patch Dy... (by )
  • Transport of Aabw Through the Kane Gap, ... (by )
  • Retroflection from a Double Slanted Coas... (by )
  • Observed and Simulated Estimates of the ... (by )
  • Variability in the Air–sea Interaction P... (by )
  • Simulation of Tsunami Generation, Propag... (by )
  • A Study of the Hydrographic Conditions i... (by )
  • Deep Ocean Exchange with West-european S... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.