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Super-ensemble Techniques Applied to Wave Forecast: Performance and Limitations : Volume 6, Issue 2 (23/06/2010)

By Lenartz, F.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004020465
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 10
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Super-ensemble Techniques Applied to Wave Forecast: Performance and Limitations : Volume 6, Issue 2 (23/06/2010)  
Author: Lenartz, F.
Volume: Vol. 6, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Ocean, Science
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


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Troupin, C., Rixen, M., Vandenbulcke, L., Beckers, J., Lenartz, F., Chiggiato, J., & Mourre, B. (2010). Super-ensemble Techniques Applied to Wave Forecast: Performance and Limitations : Volume 6, Issue 2 (23/06/2010). Retrieved from

Description: NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC), Viale San Bartolomeo 400, 19126 La Spezia, Italy. Nowadays, several operational ocean wave forecasts are available for a same region. These predictions may considerably differ, and to choose the best one is generally a difficult task. The super-ensemble approach, which consists in merging different forecasts and past observations into a single multi-model prediction system, is evaluated in this study. During the DART06 campaigns organized by the NATO Undersea Research Centre, four wave forecasting systems were simultaneously run in the Adriatic Sea, and significant wave height was measured at six stations as well as along the tracks of two remote sensors. This effort provided the necessary data set to compare the skills of various multi-model combination techniques. Our results indicate that a super-ensemble based on the Kalman Filter improves the forecast skills: The bias during both the hindcast and forecast periods is reduced, and the correlation coefficient is similar to that of the best individual model. The spatial extrapolation of local results is not straightforward and requires further investigation to be properly implemented.

Super-ensemble techniques applied to wave forecast: performance and limitations

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