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Effects of Temperature on Flood Forecasting: Analysis of an Operative Case Study in Alpine Basins : Volume 13, Issue 4 (19/04/2013)

By Ceppi, A.

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Book Id: WPLBN0004018112
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 12
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Effects of Temperature on Flood Forecasting: Analysis of an Operative Case Study in Alpine Basins : Volume 13, Issue 4 (19/04/2013)  
Author: Ceppi, A.
Volume: Vol. 13, Issue 4
Language: English
Subject: Science, Natural, Hazards
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2013
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

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Ravazzani, G., Rabuffetti, D., Salandin, A., Borgonovo, E., Mancini, M., Ceppi, A., & Montani, A. (2013). Effects of Temperature on Flood Forecasting: Analysis of an Operative Case Study in Alpine Basins : Volume 13, Issue 4 (19/04/2013). Retrieved from http://worldlibrary.net/


Description
Description: Politecnico di Milano – D.I.C.A., Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, Italy. In recent years the interest in the forecast and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrological purposes.

After the encouraging results obtained in the MAP D-PHASE Project, we decided to devote further analyses to show recent improvements in the operational use of hydro-meteorological chains, and above all to better investigate the key role played by temperature during snowy precipitation.

In this study we present a reanalysis simulation of one meteorological event, which occurred in November 2008 in the Piedmont Region. The attention is focused on the key role of air temperature, which is a crucial feature in determining the partitioning of precipitation in solid and liquid phase, influencing the quantitative discharge forecast (QDF) into the Alpine region. This is linked to the basin ipsographic curve and therefore by the total contributing area related to the snow line of the event.

In order to assess hydrological predictions affected by meteorological forcing, a sensitivity analysis of the model output was carried out to evaluate different simulation scenarios, considering the forecast effects which can radically modify the discharge forecast.

Results show how in real-time systems hydrological forecasters have to consider also the temperature uncertainty in forecasts in order to better understand the snow dynamics and its effect on runoff during a meteorological warning with a crucial snow line over the basin.

The hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 members of the meteorological ensemble system COSMO-LEPS (developed by ARPA-SIMC) based on the non-hydrostatic model COSMO, while the hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall–runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano.


Summary
Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins

Excerpt
Amengual, A., Diomede, T., Marsigli, C., Martín, A., Morgillo, A., Romero, R., Papetti, P., and Alonso, S.: A hydrometeorological model intercomparison as a tool to quantify the forecast uncertainty in a medium size basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 819–838, doi:10.5194/nhess-8-819-2008, 2008.; Arpagaus, M., Rotach, M., Ambrosetti, P., Ament, F., Appenzeller, C., Bauer, H. S., Bouttier, F., Buzzi, A., Corazza, M., Davolio, S., Denhard, M., Dorninger, M., Fontannaz, L., Frick, J., Fundel, F., Germann, U., Gorgas, T., Grossi, G., Hegg, C., Hering, A., Jaun, S., Keil, C., Liniger, M., Marsigli, C., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Montani, A., Mylne, K., Ranzi, R., Richard, E., Rossa, A., Santos-Muñoz, D., Schär, C., Seity, Y., Staudinger, M., Stoll, M., Vogt, S., Volkert, H., Walser, A., Wang, Y., Werhahn, J., Wulfmeyer, V., Wunram, C., and Zappa, M.: MAP D-PHASE: Demonstrating forecast capabilities for flood events in the Alpine region, Veröffentlichungen der MeteoSchweiz, Scientific Reports, 78, 75 pp., ISSN 1422-1381, 2009.; Bacchi, B. and Ranzi, R.: Hydrological and meteorological aspects of floods in the Alps: an overview, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 785–798, doi:10.5194/hess-7-785-2003, 2003.; Bartholmes, J. C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M. H., and Gentilini, S.: The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 141–153, doi:10.5194/hess-13-141-2009, 2009.; Bocchiola, D., De Michele, C., and Rosso, R.: Review of recent advances in index flood estimation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 283–296, doi:10.5194/hess-7-283-2003, 2003.; Borgonovo, E.: Sensitivity analysis with finite changes: An application to modified EOQ models, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 200, 127–138, doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2008.12.025, 2010.; Borgonovo, E. and Peccati, L.: Managerial Insights from Service Industry Models: a new scenario decomposition method, Ann. Oper. Res., 185, 161–179, doi:10.1007/s10479-009-0617-1, 2011.; Brath, A. and Burlando, P.: Prospettive d'impiego di previsioni di pioggia nei sistemi di preannuncio di piena, Atti XXI Convegno idraulica e costruzioni idrauliche, L'Aquila, 5–8 Settembre 1988, I, 29–44, (U.O. 1.08), 1988 (in Italian).; Cloke, H. L. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble Flood Forecasting: a review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613–626, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005, 2009.; Corbari, C., Ravazzani, G., Martinelli, J., and Mancini, M.: Elevation based correction of snow coverage retrieved from satellite images to improve model calibration, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 639–649, doi:10.5194/hess-13-639-2009, 2009.; Efron, B. and Stein, C.: The Jackknife Estimate of Variance, Ann. Stat., 9, 586–596, 1981.; Gouweleeuw, B. T., Thielen, J., Franchello, G., De Roo, A. P. J., and Buizza, R.: Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 365–380, doi:10.5194/hess-9-365-2005, 2005.; He, Y., Wetterhall, F., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F., Wilson, M., Freer, J., and McGregor, G.: Tracking the uncertainty in flood alerts driven by grand ensemble weather predictions, Meteorol. Appl., 16, 91–101, doi:10.1002/met.132, 2009.; Jaun, S.: Towards operational probabilistic runoff forecasts. Assessment of uncertainties within a coupled

 

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