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Modern Regression


In statistics, regression analysis includes any techniques for modelling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. More specifically, regression analysis helps us understand how the typical value of the dependent variable changes when any one of the independent variables is varied, while the other independent variables are held fixed.

 
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Preliminary Results of the Social Impact Research Group of Medex: ...

By: M. Gayà; M. Aran; M. C. Llasat; J. Amaro

Description: Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain. One of the aims of the MEDEX project is to improve the knowledge of high-impact weather events in the Mediterranean. According to the guidelines of this project, a pilot study was carried out in two regions of Spain (the Balearic Islands and Catalonia) by the Social Impact Research group of MEDEX. The main goal is to suggest some general and suitable criteria about how to analyse requests received i...

Campins, J., Jansà, A., and Genovés, A.: Heavy rain and strong wind events and cyclones in the Balearics, Adv. Geosci., 7, 73–77, doi:10.5194/adgeo-7-73-2006, 2006b.; Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970�-2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009.; Barriendos, M. and Martín-Vide, J.: Secular climatic oscillations as indicated by catastrophic floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coastal area (14th–19th Centuries), ...

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Technical Note: Implementation of a Geodatabase of Published and U...

By: D. Stead; M. Ghirotti; R. Genevois; M. Floris; L. Superchi; M. Jaboyedoff

Description: Dept. of Geosciences, University of Padova, Italy. On 9 October 1963 a catastrophic landslide suddenly occurred on the southern slope of the Vaiont dam reservoir. A mass of approximately 270 million m3 collapsed into the reservoir generating a wave that overtopped the dam and hit the town of Longarone and other villages nearby. Several investigations and interpretations of the slope collapse have been carried out during the last 45 years, ho...

Broili, L.: New knowledge on the geomorphology of the Vaiont Slide slip surfaces. Rock Mechanics & Eng. Geol., J. Int. Soc. Rock Mechanics., V(1), 38–88, 1967.; Cai, M., Kaiser, P. K., Uno, H., Tasaka, Y., and Minami, M.: Estimation of rock mass deformation modulus and strength of jointed hard rock masses using the GSI system. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences 41, 3–19, 2004.; Caloi, P.: L'evento del Vajont nei suoi aspetti geodinamici, Ist. Naz...

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Summary on the Nhess Special Issue Rockfall Protection – from Haza...

By: A. Volkwein; K. Schellenberg; V. Labiouse

Description: WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland. No abstract available.

Abbruzzese, J. M., Sauthier, C., and Labiouse, V.: Considerations on Swiss methodologies for rock fall hazard mapping based on trajectory modelling, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1095–1109, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1095-2009doi:10.5194/nhess-9-1095-2009, 2009.; Agliardi, F., Crosta, G. B., and Frattini, P.: Integrating rockfall risk assessment and countermeasure design by 3D modelling techniques, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1059–1073, http://dx.doi.org...

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Analysis of Hail Damages and Temperature Series for Peninsular Spa...

By: M. C. Díaz Alvarez; R. García Moreno; F. Burgaz; A. Saa Requejo; M. Tarquis

Description: CEIGRAM. E.T.S.I. Agrónomos, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain. Hail is a serious concern for agriculture on the Iberian Peninsula. Hailstorms affect crop yield and/or quality to a degree that depends on the crop species and the phenological time. In Europe, Spain is one of the countries that experience relatively high agricultural losses related to hailstorms. It is of high interest to study models that can support calculations of the probabilit...

Alexandrov, V. A. and Hoogenboom, G.: Climate variation and crop production in Georgia, USA during the twentieth century, Clim. Res., 17, 33–43, 2001.; Berthet, C., Dessens, J., and Sanchez, J. L.: Regional and yearly variations of hail frequency and intensity in France, Atmos. Res., 100, 391–400, 2011.; Botzen, W. J. W., Bouwer, L. M., and van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.: Climate change and hailstorm damage: Empirical evidence and implications for agriculture and insurance, ...

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Probabilistic Coastal Vulnerability Assessment to Storms at Region...

By: J. A. Jiménez; E. Bosom

Description: Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima, ETSECCPB, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, c/ Jordi Girona 1–3, Campus Nord ed. D1, 08034 Barcelona, Spain. A methodology to assess storm-induced coastal vulnerability taking into account the different induced processes separately (inundation and erosion) is presented. It is based on a probabilistic approach where hazards time series are built from existing storm data and later used to fit an extreme probability fun...

Bolaños, R., Sánchez-Arcilla, A., and Cateura, J.: Evaluation of two atmospheric models for wind-wave modelling in the NW Mediterranean, J. Mar. Syst., 65, 336–353, 2007.; Borgman, L.: Risk Criteria, J. Waterw. Port C.-ASCE, 89, WW3, 1–35, 1963.; Borgman, L. E. and Resio, D. T.: Extremal Prediction in Wave Climatology, Proc. Ports 77, ASCE, New York, N.Y., p. 394–412, 1977.; CADS: Informe sobre l'evoluciò de l'estat del medi ambient a Catalunya: litoral, biodiversitat i ...

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Shear Wave Splitting as a Proxy for Stress Forecast of the Case of...

By: O. Tan; G. Polat; S. Crampin; N. M. Ozel; S. Ergintav

Description: Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies, Geophysics Section, 5 Merrion Square, Dublin 2, Ireland. The 2006 Mb = 5.3 Manyas-Kus Golu (Manyas) earthquake has been retrospectively stress-forecasted using variations in time-delays of seismic shear wave splitting to evaluate the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. We processed micro earthqua...

Ambraseys, N. N. and Zatopek, A.: The Mudurnu Valley earthquake of July 22nd 1967, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 59, 521–589, 1969.; Angerer, E., Crampin, S., Li, X.-Y. and Davis, T.L.: Processing, modelling, and predicting time-lapse effects of over-pressured fluid-injection in a fractured reservoir, Geophys. J. Int., 149, 267–280, 2002.; Armijo, R., Meyer, B., Hubert, A. and Barka, A.A.: Westward Propagation of the North Anatolian Fault into the Northern Aegean: Timing and Ki...

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Reverse Flood Routing with the Inverted Muskingum Storage Routing ...

By: S. Lykoudis; A. A. Argiriou; K. Mazi; A. D. Koussis

Description: Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece. This work treats reverse flood routing aiming at signal identification: inflows are inferred from observed outflows by orienting the Muskingum scheme against the wave propagation direction. Routing against the wave propagation is an ill-posed, inverse problem (small errors amplify, leading to large spurious responses); therefore, the reverse solution m...

Atmadja, J. and Bogtzoglou, A. C.: Pollution source identification in heterogeneous porous media, Water Resour. Res., 37, 2113–2125, 2001.; Bowen, J. D., Koussis, A. D., and Zimmer, D. T.: Storm drain design – diffusive flood routing for PCs, J. Hydraul. Eng., 115, 1135–1150, 1989.; Bronstein, I. N. and Semendjajew, K. A.: Taschenbuch der Mathematik, 412 pp., Verlag Harri Deutsch, Zürich, 1964.; Bruen, M. and Dooge, J. C. I.: Harmonic analysis of the stability of reverse...

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Relationship Between Isoseismal Area and Magnitude of Historical E...

By: G-a. Tselentis; E. Sokos

Description: University of Patras, Seismological Lab, Greece. In this paper we suggest the use of diffusion-neural-networks, (neural networks with intrinsic fuzzy logic abilities) to assess the relationship between isoseismal area and earthquake magnitude for the region of Greece. It is of particular importance to study historical earthquakes for which we often have macroseismic information in the form of isoseisms but it is statistically incomplete to assess magnit...

Ambraseys, N. N., Smit, P., Douglas, J., Margaris, B., Sigbjörnsson, R., Ólafsson, S., Suhadolc, P., and Costa, G.: Internet site for European strong-motion data, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl., 45, 113–129, 2004.; Davenport, P.: Neural network analysis of seismic intensity from instrumental records, 13th WCEE, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, paper 692, 2004.; De Rubeis, V., Tosi, P., Gasparini, C., and Solipaca, A.: Application of the kriging technique to seismic intensity data, Bull...

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Analyzing the Temporal Fluctuations of the Reservoir-triggered Sei...

By: J. M. Ferreira; A. F. Do Nascimento; F. H. R. Bezerra; L. Telesca

Description: Istituto di Metodologie per l'Analisi Ambientale, CNR, C. da S. Loja, 85050 Tito (PZ), Italy. The time dynamics of the reservoir-induced seismicity observed in Açu area (Brazil) from November 1994 to April 1997 reveals a super-Poissonian behaviour in the direction of a clustering process, where the occurrence of an earthquake increases the likelihood of the occurrence of a subsequent one. The seismicity shows strong correlation for time scales larger tha...

Anglin, F. M. and Buchbinder, G. G. R.: Induced seismicity at the LG3 Reservoir, James Bay, Quebec, Canada, Bull. Seismol. Soc. USA, 75, 1067–1076, 1985.; Anteneodo, C., Malmgren, R. D., and Chialvo, D. R.: Poissonian bursts in e-mail correspondence, Eur. Phys. J. B, 75, 389–394, 2010.; Bezerra, F. H. R., Fonseca, V. P., Vita-Finzi, C., Lima-Filho, F. P., and Saadi, A.: Liquefaction-induced structures in Quaternary alluvial gravels and gravels sediments, NE Brazil, in: P...

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Recent Seismicity Detection Increase in the Santorini Volcanic Isl...

By: K. Makropoulos; G. Drakatos; N. S. Melis; G. Chouliaras

Description: Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, P.O. Box 20048, Athens, 11810 Greece. Santorini is the most active volcanic complex in the South Aegean Volcanic Arc. To improve the seismological network detectability of the seismicity in this region, the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) recently installed 4 portable seismological stations supplementary to the 3 permanent stations operating in the region. The...

Chouliaras, G.: Investigating the earthquake catalog of the National Observatory of Athens, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 905–912, doi:10.5194/nhess-9-905-2009, 2009.; De Lauro, E., De Martino, S., Falanga, M., and Palo, M.: Self-sustained vibrations in volcanic areas extracted by Independent Component Analysis: a review and new results, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 925–940,

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Modelling of Tsunami-like Wave Run-up, Breaking and Impact on a Ve...

By: H. Xu; E. S. Chan; P. Tkalich; M. H. Dao

Description: Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling, Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, Singapore. Accurate predictions of wave run-up and run-down are important for coastal impact assessment of relatively long waves such as tsunami or storm waves. Wave run-up is, however, a complex process involving nonlinear build-up of the wave front, intensive wave breaking and strong turbulent flow, making the numerical approximation challenging. Recent ...

Batchelor, G. K.: An introduction to fluid dynamics, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom, 1967.; Bonet, J. and Kulasegaram, S.: Correction and stabilization of smooth particle hydrodynamics methods with applications in metal forming simulations, Int. J. Numer. Meth. Eng., 47, 1189–1214, 2000.; Chan, E. S.: Mechanics of deep water plunging-wave impacts on vertical structures, Coast. Eng., 22, 115–133, 1994.; Briggs, M. J., Synolakis, C. E., Harkins, G., and Green, ...

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Temporal Variations in the Wind and Wave Climate at a Location in ...

By: V. Sanil Kumar; P. R. Shanas

Description: Ocean Engineering, CSIR – National Institute of Oceanography (Council of Scientific & Industrial Research), Dona Paula, Goa 403 004, India. Temporal variations in wind speed and significant wave height (SWH) at a location in the eastern Arabian Sea are studied using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 to 2012. A shallow water location is selected for the study since measured buoy data are available close to the location for comparison with the reanaly...

Allan, J. and Komar, P.: Are ocean wave heights increasing in the eastern North Pacific? Eos Trans., AGU, 47, 566–567, 2000.; Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Fielding, K., Fuentes, M., Kållberg, K., Kobayashi, S., and Uppala, S.: The ERA-interim archive, ERA Report Series, 1. Technical Report, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, 16, 2009.; Bouws, E., Jannink, D., and Komen, G. J.: The increasing wave height in the North Atlantic, Ocean. ...

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Modelling Wildland Fire Propagation by Tracking Random Fronts : Vo...

By: G. Pagnini; A. Mentrelli

Description: BCAM – Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, 48009 Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain. Wildland fire propagation is studied in the literature by two alternative approaches, namely the reaction–diffusion equation and the level-set method. These two approaches are considered alternatives to each other because the solution of the reaction–diffusion equation is generally a continuous smooth function that has an exponential decay, and it ...

Balbi, J. H., Rossi, J. L., Marcelli, T., and Santoni, P. A.: A 3D physical real-time model of surface fires across fuel beds, Combust. Sci. Technol., 179, 2511–2537, 2007.; Balbi, J. H., Morandini, F., Silvani, X., Filippi, J. B., and Rinieri, F.: A physical model for wildland fires, Combust. Flame, 156, 2217–2230, 2009.; Beezley, J. D. and Mandel, J.: Morphing ensemble Kalman filters, Tellus A, 60, 131–140, 2008.; Beezley, J. D., Chakraborty, S., Coen, J. L., Douglas, ...

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A Mixture of Exponentials Distribution for a Simple and Precise As...

By: A. T. Mendoza-rosas; S. De La Cruz-reyna

Description: Posgrado en Ciencias de la Tierra, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México 04510 D. F., México. The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessme...

Carta, S., Figari, R., Sartoris, G., Sassi, E., and Scandone, R.: A statistical model for Vesuvius and its volcanological implications, Bull. Volcanol., 44, 129–151, 1981.; De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: Random patterns of occurrence of explosive eruptions at Colima Volcano, México, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 55, 51–68, 1993.; De la Cruz-Reyna, S.: Long- Term Probabilistic Analysis of Future Explosive Eruptions, in: Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcanic Hazards, edited by: Scar...

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Modelling Wildland Fire Propagation by Tracking Random Fronts : Vo...

By: G. Pagnini; A. Mentrelli

Description: BCAM – Basque Center for Applied Mathematics, Alameda de Mazarredo 14, 48009 Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain. Wildland fire propagation is studied in literature by two alternative approaches, namely the reaction-diffusion equation and the level-set method. These two approaches are considered alternative each other because the solution of the reaction-diffusion equation is generally a continuous smooth function that has an exponential decay and an infinite su...

Alexander, M. E.: Calculating and interpreting forest fire intensities, Can. J. Bot., 60, 349–357, 1982.; Almeida, R. M. and Macau, E. E. N.: Stochastic cellular automata model for wildland fire spread dynamics, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 285, 012038, 2011.; Asensio, M. I. and Ferragut, L.: On a wildland fire model with radiation, Int. J. Numer. Meth. Engng., 54, 137–157, 2002.; Babak, P., Bourlioux, A., and Hillen, T.: The effect of wind on the propagation of an idealized for...

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Complexity and Predictability of Daily Precipitation in a Semi-ari...

By: L. M. V. Carvalho; T. De M. B. S. Xavier; M. A. F. Da Silva Dias; M. E. S. Silva

Description: Department of Geography, FFLCH, University of São Paulo, Brazil. Complexity and predictability of daily precipitation in a tropical semi-arid region (Ceará State, Brazil) is assessed by applying entropy concepts. Precipitation regimes in that region depend on several dynamical forcings, the most important being the displacement and activity of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone in the Atlantic Ocean. Topography is another important factor that influenc...

Alves, J. M. B.: Verification of the seasonal prognostics of precipitation in the Ceará State by using percentiles, Rev. Bras. Meteorol., 15, 73–86 (in portuguese), 2000.; Asnani, G. C.: Tropical Meteorology., vol 1., Nobles Printer, India, 604 pp., 1993.; Bengtsson, L., Hodges, K. I., and Froude, L. S. R.: Global observation and forecast skill, Tellus, 57A, 515–527, 2005.; Bengtsson, L. and Hodges, K. I.: A note on atmospheric predictability, Tellus, 58, 154–157, 2006.;...

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A Case for Variational Geomagnetic Data Assimilation: Insights fro...

By: T. Alboussière; C. Eymin; A. Fournier

Description: Laboratoire de Géophysique Interne et Tectonophysique, Université Joseph-Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble cedex 9, France. Secular variations of the geomagnetic field have been measured with a continuously improving accuracy during the last few hundred years, culminating nowadays with satellite data. It is however well known that the dynamics of the magnetic field is linked to that of the velocity field in the core and any attempt to model secular variatio...

Amit, H. and Olson, P.: Helical core flow from geomagnetic secular variation, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 147, 1–25, \doi10.1016/j.pepi.2004.02.006, 2004.; Anderson, E., Bai, Z., Bischof, C., Blackford, S., Demmel, J., Dongarra, J., Du~Croz, J., Greenbaum, A., Hammarling, S., McKenney, A., and Sorensen, D.: LAPACK Users' Guide, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, PA, third edn., 1999.; Backus, G E.: Kinematics of geomagnetic secular variation in...

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Meteorological Uncertainty and Rainfall Downscaling : Volume 14, I...

By: N. Rebora; A. Provenzale; L. Ferraris; J. Von Hardenberg

Description: ISAC-CNR, Corso Fiume 4, 10133 Torino, Italy. We explore the sources of forecast uncertainty in a mixed dynamical-stochastic ensemble prediction chain for small-scale precipitation, suitable for hydrological applications. To this end, we apply the stochastic downscaling method RainFARM to each member of ensemble limited-area forecasts provided by the COSMO-LEPS system. Aim of the work is to quantitatively compare the relative weights of the meteorolog...

Adlerman, E J. and Droegemeier, K K.: The sensitivity of numerically simulated cyclic mesocyclogenesis to variations in model physical and computational parameters, Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2671–2691, 2002.; Bell, T L.: A space-time stochastic model of rainfall for satellite remote sensing studies, J. Geophys. Res., 92, 9631–9643, 1987.; Buizza, R. and Palmer, T N.: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction, Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2503–2518, 1998.; Du, J., Mullen, S L., a...

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Model Error Estimation in Ensemble Data Assimilation : Volume 14, ...

By: B. De Moor; S. Gillijns

Description: SCD-SISTA-ESAT, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. A new methodology is proposed to estimate and account for systematic model error in linear filtering as well as in nonlinear ensemble based filtering. Our results extend the work of Dee and Todling (2000) on constant bias errors to time-varying model errors. In contrast to existing methodologies, the new filter can also deal with the case where no dynamical model for the systematic error i...

Anderson, J.: An ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for data assimilation, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2884–2903, 2001.; Anderson, J. and Anderson, S.: A Monte Carlo implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2741–2758, 1999.; Bishop, C., Etherton, B., and Majundar, S.: Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: theoretical aspects, Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 420–436, 2001.; Burgers,...

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Identification of Dynamical Transitions in Marine Palaeoclimate Re...

By: K. Rehfeld; R. V. Donner; N. Marwan; J. Kurths; M. H. Trauth; J. F. Donges

Description: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany. The analysis of palaeoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, in this paper we argue that the statistical properties of recurrence networks – a recently developed approach – are promising candida...

Abarbanel, H. D. I.: Analysis of Observed Chaotic Data (Springer, New York), 1996.; Babu, P. and Stoica, P.: Spectral analysis of nonuniformly sampled data – a review, Dig. Sign. Proc. 20, 359–378, 2010.; Barrio, R. and Serrano, S.: A three-parametric study of the Lorenz model, Physica D, 229, 43–51, 2007. {; Boccaletti, S., Latora, V., Moreno, Y., Chavez, M., and Hwang, D.: Complex networks: Structure and dynamics, Phys. Rep., 424, 175–308, 2006.}; Brockwell, P. J. and ...

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