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Modern Regression


In statistics, regression analysis includes any techniques for modelling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. More specifically, regression analysis helps us understand how the typical value of the dependent variable changes when any one of the independent variables is varied, while the other independent variables are held fixed.

 
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Aviation Weather Information Requirements Study: by Byron M. Keel

Description: This document contains information regarding topics such as Taxi and Take-Off, Departure, Initial Climb, and Initial Cruise, and National Transportation Safety Board (NSTB) Data...

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Barge Morris J. Berman Spill Noaa's Scientific Response

By: Gary Petrae, Lcdr.

Introduction: The T/B Morris J. Berman oil spill was the first major spill since the Oil Pollution Act (OPA) of 1990 for which the United States Coast Guard became the sole executors of the response effort. Response activities and response management were directed by the federally designated On-Scene Coordinator. This was also the first major U.S. oil spill under OPA since the development of area contingency plans. Many important environmental issues were addressed durin...

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The Genesis of Typhoon Nuri as Observed During the Tropical Cyclon...

By: M. M. Bell; M. T. Montgomery; L. L. Lussier III

Description: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA. Aircraft reconnaissance data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 field campaign are used to examine further kinematical, dynamical, and thermodynamical aspects of the genesis of Typhoon Nuri. Data from the first two missions into the pre-Nuri disturbance document the transition from a tropical wave to a tropical depression. Dropwindsonde-derived tangential wind profiles at several ra...

AMS Statement: Hurricane forecasting in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 950–951, 2007.; Bell, M. M., Montgomery, M. T., and Emanuel, K. A.: Air-sea enthalpy and momentum exchange at major hurricane wind speeds observed during CBLAST, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3197–3222, 2012.; Bell, M. M., Lee, W.-C., Wolff, C., and Cai, H.: A Solo-based automated quality control algorithm for airborne Doppler tail radar data, J. Appl. Meteor. Clim., 52, 2509–2528, 2013.; Chang, ...

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Influence of Along-valley Terrain Heterogeneity on Exchange Proces...

By: M. W. Rotach; A. Gohm; J. S. Wagner

Description: Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Innsbruck, Austria. Idealized numerical simulations of thermally driven flows over various valley–plain topographies are performed under daytime conditions. Valley floor inclination and narrowing valley cross sections are systematically varied to study the influence of along-valley terrain heterogeneity on the developing boundary layer structure, as well as horizontal and vertical transport processes...

Catalano, F. and Cenedese, A.: High-resolution numerical modeling of thermally driven slope winds in a valley with strong capping, J. Appl. Meteorol., 49, 1859–1880, 2010.; Catalano, F. and Moeng, C.-H.: Large-eddy simulation of the daytime boundary layer in an idealized valley using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 137, 49–75, doi:10.1007/s10546-010-9518-8, 2010.; Colette...

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Long-memory Processes in Ozone and Temperature Variations at the R...

By: D. Kirk-davidoff; C. Varotsos

Description: Department of Applied Physics, University of Athens, Athens, Greece. Global column ozone and tropospheric temperature observations made by ground-based (1964–2004) and satellite-borne (1978–2004) instrumentation are analyzed. Ozone and temperature fluctuations in small time-intervals are found to be positively correlated to those in larger time-intervals in a power-law fashion. For temperature, the exponent of this dependence is larger in the mid-latitu...

Lovejoy, S.: Area-perimeter relation for rain and cloud areas, Science, 216(4542), 185–187, 1982.; Audit, B., Bacry, E., Muzy, J. F., and Arneodo, A.: Wavelets based estimators of scaling behavior IEEE, Trans. Information Theory 48, 11, 2938–2954, 2002.; Ausloos, M. and Ivanova, K.: Power-law correlations in the southern-oscillation-index fluctuations characterizing El Nino, Phys. Rev. E, 63, 047201, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.63047201, 2001.; Blender R. and Fraedrich, K.: Lon...

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An Ensemble Kalman Filter for Severe Dust Storm Data Assimilation ...

By: J. Zhu; Z. Wang; C. Lin

Description: LAPC and NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation system was developed for a regional dust transport model. This paper applied the EnKF method to investigate modeling of severe dust storm episodes occurring in March 2002 over China based on surface observations of dust concentrations to explore the impact of the EnKF data assimilation systems on forecast improve...

Evensen, G.: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 10 143–10 162, 1994.; Evensen, G.: The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical Formulation and Practical Implementation, Ocean Dynamics, 53, 343–367, 2003.; Evensen, G.: Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Tilter, Springer, German, 2006.; Gong, S. L., Zhang, X. Y., Zhao, T. L., McKendry, I. G., Jaffe, D. A., and Lu...

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Statistical Properties of Cloud Lifecycles in Cloud-resolving Mode...

By: R. S. Plant

Description: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, P.O. Box 243, RG6 6BB, UK. A new technique is described for the analysis of cloud-resolving model simulations, which allows one to investigate the statistics of the lifecycles of cumulus clouds. Clouds are tracked from timestep to timestep within the model run. This allows for a very simple method of tracking, but one which is both comprehensive and robust. An approach for handling ...

Arakawa, A. and Schubert, W. H.: Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. Part I, J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 674–701, 1974.; Barnes, G. M., Frankhauser, J. C., and Browning, W. D.: Evolution of the mass flux and diagnosed net lateral mixing in isolated convective clouds, Mon. Weather Rev., 124, 2764–2784, 1996.; Blyth, A. M., Lasher-Trapp, S. G., and Cooper, W. A.: A study of thermals in cumulus clouds, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 1171–1190, 2...

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Evaluation of Wrf Mesoscale Simulations and Particle Trajectory An...

By: L. T. Molina; N. Bei; M. Zavala; B. De Foy

Description: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, MO, USA. Accurate numerical simulations of the complex wind flows in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) can be an invaluable tool for interpreting the MILAGRO field campaign results. This paper uses three methods to evaluate numerical simulations of basin meteorology using the MM5 and WRF models: statistical comparisons with observations, Concentration Field Analysis (CFA) using ...

Aristotle: Nichomachean Ethics, chap. Book I, Chapter III, Longmans, Green and Co., 1891.; Ashbaugh, L L., Malm, W C., and Sadeh, W Z.: A residence time probability analysis of sulfur concentrations at grand-canyon-national-park, Atmos. Environ., 19, 1263–1270, 1985.; Bao, J W., Michelson, S A., Persson, P. O G., Djalalova, I V., and Wilczak, J M.: Observed and WRF-simulated low-level winds in a high-ozone episode during the Central California Ozone Study, J. Appl. Meteo...

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Simulation of Low Clouds in the Southeast Pacific by the Ncep Gfs:...

By: S. Moorthi; C.-r. Mechoso; H. Xiao; R. Sun

Description: UCAR/Environ. Modeling Center/NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD, 20746, USA. The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model has an important systematic error shared by many other models: stratocumuli are missed over the subtropical eastern oceans. It is shown that this error can be alleviated in the GFS by introducing a consideration of the low-level inversion and making two modifications in the model's representation of vertical mixing. The modif...

Garreaud, R. and Munoz, R.: The low-level jet off the subtropical west coast of South America: Structure and variablility, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 2246–2261, 2005.; Alpert, J. C.: Subgrid-scale mountain blocking at NCEP, Proc. of 20th conf. on Weather and Forecasting, Seatle, WA, 2004.; Bony, S. and Dufresre, J.-L.: Marine boundary layer clouds at the heart of tropical cloud feedback uncertainties in climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20806, doi:10.1029/2005GL0238...

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Toward Unification of the Multiscale Modeling of the Atmosphere : ...

By: C.-m. Wu; A. Arakawa; J.-h. Jung

Description: University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA. This paper suggests two possible routes to achieve the unification of model physics in coarse- and fine-resolution atmospheric models. As far as representation of deep moist convection is concerned, only two kinds of model physics are used at present: highly parameterized as in the conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and explicitly simulated as in the cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Ideal...

Arakawa, A.: The cumulus parameterization problem: Past, present, and future, J. Climate, 17, 2493–2525, 2004.; Arakawa, A. and Schubert, W. H.: Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. Part I, J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 674–701, 1974.; Bjerknes, V.: Das Problem der Wettervorhersage, betrachtet vom Standpunkte der Mechanik und der Physik (The problem of weather prediction, considered from the viewpoints of mechanics and physics). – Meteorol. Z. ...

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Quasi-geostrophic Turbulence and Generalized Scale Invariance, a T...

By: A. Tuck; I. Tchiguirinskaia; S. Lovejoy; D. Schertzer

Description: Université Paris-Est, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, LEESU, Marne-la-Vallée, France. Lindborg et al. (2010) claim that the spectrum power law E(k)k−3 on scales ≥600 km obtained with the help of commercial jetliner trajectory deviations (GASP and Mozaic databases) could not be brought into question (Lovejoy et al., 2009a), because this spectrum corresponds to a well known theory of quasi-geostrophic turbulence developed by Charney ...

Adelfang, S. I.: On the relation between wind shears over various intervals, J. Atmos. Sci., 10, 156–159, 1971.; Bolgiano, R.: Turbulent spectra in a stably stratified atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 64, 2226–2229, 1959.; Charney, J. G.: On the scale of atmospheric motions, Geophys. Publ. Oslo, 17, 1–17, 1948.; Charney, J. G.: Geostrophic Turbulence, J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1087–1095, 1971.; Charney, J. G., Fjortoft, R., and {von N}eumann, J.: Numerical integration of the baro...

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The Genesis of Typhoon Nuri as Observed During the Tropical Cyclon...

By: M. M. Bell; L. L. Lussier III; M. T. Montgomery

Description: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA. Aircraft reconnaissance data collected during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 field campaign are used to examine further kinematical, dynamical and thermodynamical aspects of the genesis of Typhoon Nuri. Data from the first two missions into the pre-Nuri disturbance document the transition from a tropical wave to a tropical depression. Dropwindsonde-derived tangential wind profiles at several ...

AMS Statement: Hurricane forecasting in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 950–951, 2007.; Bell, M. M., Montgomery, M. T., and Emanuel, K. A.: Air-sea enthalpy and momentum exchange at major hurricane wind speeds observed during CBLAST, J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 3197–3222, 2012.; Bell, M. M., Lee, W.-C., Wolff, C., and Cai, H.: A solo-based automated quality control algorithm for airborne Doppler tail radar data, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., in press, 2013.; Chang,...

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Impacts of the Solar Eclipse of 29 March 2006 on the Surface Ozone...

By: L. Viras; C. Tzanis; C. Varotsos

Description: University of Athens, Department of Applied Physics, Panepistimiopolis Build. Phys. 5, 15784, Athens, Greece. The behavior of surface ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentration as well as the variations in various meteorological parameters before, during and after the total solar eclipse of 29 March 2006 has been examined. This analysis is based on measurements performed at four stations located in the greater Athens basin in Greece. The experimental data ...

Chimonas, G. and Hines, C. O.: Atmospheric gravity waves induced by a solar eclipse, 2, J. Geophys. Res., 76, 7003–7005, 1971.; Burnett, C. R. and Burnett, E. B.: Atmospheric hydroxyl response to the partial solar eclipse of May 1984, Geophys. Res. Lett., 12, 263–266, 1985.; Bojkov, R. D.: The ozone variations during the solar eclipse of 20 May 1966, Tellus, 20, 417–421, 1968.; Cartalis, C. and Varotsos, C.: Surface ozone in Athens, Greece, at the beginning and at the en...

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A Data Assimilation Method of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Use i...

By: J. Zhu; Z. Wang; C. Lin

Description: LAPC/NZC, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation system was developed for a regional dust transport model. This paper applied the EnKF method to investigate modeling severe dust storm episodes occurred in March 2002 over China based on surface observations of dust concentrations to explore its impacts on forecast improvement. A series of sensitivity experiments usi...

Evensen, G.: Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 10 143–10 162, 1994.; Evensen, G.: The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical Formulation and Practical Implementation, Ocean Dynam., 53, 343–367, 2003.; Evensen, G.: Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Tilter, Springer, German, 2006.; Houtekamer, P. L. and Mitchell, H. L.: Data assimilation using an Ensemble Kalm...

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Medium-range Mid-tropospheric Transport of Ozone and Precursors Ov...

By: J. Duron; V. Pont; B. Sauvage; C. Mari; J. Escobar; P. Mascart; V. Thouret; J.-p. Cammas; F. Gheusi

Description: Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France. A meso-scale model was used to understand and describe the processes driving high ozone concentrations observed during both dry and monsoon seasons in monthly climatologies profiles over Lagos (Nigeria, 6.6° N, 3.3° E), obtained with the MOZAIC airborne measurements (ozone and carbon monoxide). This study focuses on ozone enhancements observed in the upper-part of the lower troposphere, around 3000 m. Two indi...

Marufu, L., Dentener, F., Lelieveld, J., Andreae, M., and Helas, G.: Photochemistry of the African troposphere: Influence of biomass-burning emissions, J. Geoph. Res., 105, 14 513–14 530, 2000.; Morcrette, J.-J.: Radiation and cloud radiative properties in the European Center for Medium range Weather Forcasts forecasting system, J. Geoph. Res., 96, 9121–9132, 1991.; Parker, D., Thorncroft, C., Burton, R., and Diongue-Niang, A.: Analysis of the African easterly jet, using...

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Statistical Properties of Cloud Lifecycles in Cloud-resolving Mode...

By: R. S. Plant

Description: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, P.O. Box 243, RG6 6BB, UK. A new technique is described for the analysis of cloud-resolving model simulations, which allows one to investigate the statistics of the lifecycles of cumulus clouds. Clouds are tracked from timestep-to-timestep within the model run. This allows for a very simple method of tracking, but one which is both comprehensive and robust. An approac...

Arakawa, A. and Schubert, W. H.: Interaction of a~cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment. Part I, J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 674–701, 1974.; Carvalho, L. M. V. and Jones, C.: A~satellite method to identify structural properties of mesoscale convective systems based on the maximum spatial correlation tracking technique (MASCOTTE), J. Appl. Meteorol., 40, 1683–1701, 2001.; Cho, H.-R.: Contributions of cumulus cloud life-cycle effects to the large-scale heat and m...

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Evaluation of Wrf Mesoscale Simulations and Particle Trajectory An...

By: M. Zavala; N. Bei; L. T. Molina; B. De Foy

Description: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Saint Louis University, MO, USA. Accurate numerical simulations of the complex wind flows in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) can be an invaluable tool for interpreting the MILAGRO field campaign results. This paper uses three methods to evaluate numerical simulations of basin meteorology using the MM5 and WRF models: statistical comparisons with observations, Concentration Field Analysis (CFA) usin...

Aristotle: Nichomachean Ethics, Book I, Chapter III. Longmans, Green and Co., 1891.; Ashbaugh, L L., Malm, W C., and Sadeh, W Z.: A residence time probability analysis of sulfur concentrations at grand-canyon-national-park, Atmos. Environ., 19, 1263–1270, 1985.; Bao, J W., Michelson, S A., Persson, P. O G., Djalalova, I V., and Wilczak, J M.: Observed and WRF-simulated low-level winds in a high-ozone episode during the Central California Ozone Study, J. Appl. Meteorol. C...

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Intermediate and High Resolution Numerical Simulations of the Tran...

By: T. J. Dunkerton; Z. Wang; M. T. Montgomery

Description: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey CA, USA. Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis that typifies the trade wind belt. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity ...

Bister, M. and Emanuel, K. A.: The genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX analyses and a modeling study, Mon. Weather Rev., 125, 2662–2682, 1997.; Braun, S. A., Montgomery, M. T., Mallen, K. J., and Reasor, P. D.: Simulation and interpretation of the genesis of tropical storm GERT (2005) as part of the NASA tropical cloud systems, J. Atmos. Sci., in Press, 2009; Cram, T. A., Montgomery, M. T., and Hertenstein, R. F. A.: Early Evolution of Vertical Vorticity in a Numerica...

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An Automated Cloud Detection Method Based on Green Channel of Tota...

By: T. Lu; J. Yang; Y. Ma; Q. Min; J. Du; W. Lu; W. Yao

Description: State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China. Getting an accurate cloud cover state is a challenging task. In the past, traditional two-dimensional red-to-blue band methods have been widely used for cloud detection in total sky images. By analyzing the imaging principle of cameras, green channel has been selected to replace the 2-D red-to-blue band for total sky cloud detection. Th...

Long, C. N.: Correcting for circumsolar and near-horizon errors in sky cover retrievals from sky images, Open Atmos. Sci. J., 4, 45–52, 2010.; Alonso, J., Batlles, F. J., Villarroel, C., Ayala, R., and Burgaleta, J. I.: Determination of the sun area in sky camera images using radiometric data, Energ. Convers. Manage., 78, 24–31, 2014.; Bayer, B. E.: Color imaging array, US patent 3971065, 1976.; Blanco-Muriel, M., Alarcon-Padilla, D. C., Lopea-Moratalla, T., and Lara-Coi...

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Ring Current Decay Time Model During Geomagnetic Storms: a Simple ...

By: R. Monreal MacMahon; C. Llop-romero

Description: University of Magallanes, CEQUA, Space Physics Lab, Casilla 113-D, Punta Arenas, Chile. The ring current growth and decay, characterized by the Dst index, has been studied for thirty years using the Burton et al. (1975) equation. The original formula is based on the restriction of the DPS (Dessler, Parker, and Schoppke) theorem and assuming a constant decay time of particles. The decay time scale is important because the energy injectio...

Akasofu, S.-I.: Energy coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere, Space Sci. Res., 28, 121–190, 1981.; Akasofu, S.-I.: Some critical issues on magnetospheric substorms, Planet. Space Sci., 34, 563–560, 1986.; Akasofu, S.-I. and Chapman, S.: Solar Terrestrial Physics, Clarendon, Oxford, England, 1972.; Burton, R. K., McPherron, R. L., and Russell, C. T.: An empirical relationship between interplanetary conditions and $D_st$, J. Geophys. Res., 80, 4204–4214, 19...

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